market-sizingdraft
Executive Summary
This is an assumption-labeled sizing frame, not a validated number. At concept stage there is no licensed market data in hand; every figure below is an explicit placeholder marked [ASSUMPTION] to be replaced with sourced inputs. The single most important assumption is the number of professional coaches willing to pay for a coaching-native ops tool and the per-seat price.
Market Definition
- Included: professional/ICF-credentialed coaches running paid 1:1 or team coaching who do post-session work.
- Excluded: unpaid/peer coaches, pure therapy/counselling, enterprise L&D platforms.
- Geography / horizon: US-first (per studio page), 3-year horizon.
Top-Down Sizing (placeholders)
| Layer |
Number |
Method |
Source / Assumption |
Confidence |
| TAM |
$[ASSUMPTION] |
global professional coaches × annual seat price |
needs ICF membership + pricing |
Low |
| SAM |
$[ASSUMPTION] |
US, credentialed, post-session workflow |
filter on TAM |
Low |
| SOM |
$[ASSUMPTION] |
3-yr realistic share via coach + school channel |
% of SAM |
Low |
Bottom-Up Sizing (preferred once data exists)
| Segment |
# Customers |
Revenue / Customer |
Sub-total |
Method |
Source |
| US credentialed coaches |
[ASSUMPTION] |
$[ASSUMPTION]/yr |
$[X*Y] |
Bottom-up |
ICF data + pilot price |
Bottom-up is the right method here because the unit (a coach seat) is concrete; do not fabricate the counts.
Multi-Framework Synthesis
- Agree: both frames hinge on (coach count) × (seat price); convergence is structural, not evidentiary.
- Diverge: none computed — inputs absent.
- Synthesized estimate: withheld until sourced. Reporting a number now would be fabrication (hard blocker).
Sensitivity Analysis (structure only)
| Assumption varied |
Low |
Mid |
High |
| Seat price |
$[a] |
$[b] |
$[c] |
| Share captured (3y) |
0.5% |
2% |
5% |
Key Assumptions
| Assumption |
Source / Rationale |
Confidence |
What changes if wrong |
| Coaches pay per seat |
plan page: payer unresolved |
Low |
Whole model (could be client/sponsor-paid) |
| US credentialed coach population |
ICF (to be sourced) |
Low |
TAM scale |
Confidence and Limitations
- Most confident: the structure (coach-seat × price).
- Least confident: every quantity.
- Would improve confidence: licensed ICF membership data + pilot-derived price point.
- Not addressed: payer ambiguity (coach vs client vs sponsor), international.
Next Steps
- Source ICF population + run pricing discovery (interviews, 02).
- Conviction threshold: a defensible SOM ≥ a number that justifies build cost — not yet computable.